Middleweight
3 Rounds
Gegard Mousasi won · KO/TKO R1
UFC Event·Saturday, July 9, 2016·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupGegard Mousasi: Submission grapplervsThiago Santos: Well-rounded
Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.
Model Prediction: Gegard Mousasi wins(56.6%)
Actual result: Gegard Mousasi wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Gegard Mousasi enters on a 4-fight win streak.
- Gegard Mousasi has 15pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Tale of the Tape
Gegard Mousasi
Red Corner
VS
Thiago Santos
Blue Corner
-290
(74%)
Vegas Odds
+245
(29%)
40
Age
42
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'2"
Height
6'2"
193.04 cm
Reach
193.04 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Gegard MousasiW4 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Uriah Hall · Sep 15W
vs Thales Leites · Feb 16W
KOvs Vitor Belfort · Oct 16W
KOvs Uriah Hall · Nov 16W
KOvs Chris Weidman · Apr 17Thiago SantosL2 streak
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Glover Teixeira · Nov 20L
vs Aleksandar Rakic · Mar 21W
vs Johnny Walker · Oct 21L
vs Magomed Ankalaev · Mar 22L
KOvs Jamahal Hill · Aug 22Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Gegard MousasiMetricThiago Santos
3.75
Strikes / min
3.72
1.21
Strikes absorbed / min
2.57
68%
Strike defense
53%
1.59
TDs / 15 min
0.88
59%
Takedown defense
65%
1.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+2.54Δ 1.39 — meaningful gap+1.15
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Gegard MousasiThiago Santos
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Gegard Mousasi(10 fights)Thiago Santos(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-14.614.6
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+77.0-77.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.50.5
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+1.9-1.9
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
Gegard Mousasi
StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights12
Thiago Santos
StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights24