Welterweight
3 Rounds
Geoff Neal won · SUB R1
UFC Event·Sunday, February 18, 2018·Austin, Texas, USA, USA
Model Prediction: Geoff Neal wins(68.4%)
Actual result: Geoff Neal wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Geoff Neal is a KO finisher (63% of wins). Brian Camozzi has lost 67% of fights by KO.
- Geoff Neal has 87pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Geoff Neal (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Geoff Neal
Red Corner
VS
Brian Camozzi
Blue Corner
-210
(68%)
Vegas Odds
+175
(36%)
35
Age
34
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'11"
Height
6'2"
190.5 cm
Reach
198.12 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Geoff NealL2 streak
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Shavkat Rakhmonov · Mar 23L
vs Ian Machado Garry · Feb 24W
KOvs Rafael Dos Anjos · Oct 24L
KOvs Carlos Prates · Aug 25L
KOvs Uros Medic · Feb 26Brian CamozziL2 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Randy Brown · Dec 16L
KOvs Chad Laprise · Jul 17Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Geoff NealMetricBrian Camozzi
5.02
Strikes / min
3.15
5.50
Strikes absorbed / min
6.39
57%
Strike defense
54%
0.54
TDs / 15 min
0.00
87%
Takedown defense
0%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.70
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.48Δ 2.76 — meaningful gap-3.24
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Geoff NealBrian Camozzi
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Geoff Neal(10 fights)Brian Camozzi(3 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+33.4-33.4
RedForm ScoreBlue
+1.0-1.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+49.5-49.5
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+49.9-49.9
Geoff Neal
StanceSouthpaw
Height71.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights14
Brian Camozzi
StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach78.0"
Fights3