Welterweight
3 Rounds
Carlos Prates won · KO/TKO R1
UFC Event·Saturday, August 16, 2025·Chicago, Illinois, USA, USA
Style matchupGeoff Neal: Pressure fightervsCarlos Prates: Pressure fighter
Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.
Model Prediction: Geoff Neal wins(63.0%)
Actual result: Carlos Prates wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Geoff Neal has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Stance matchup historically favors Carlos Prates (54.1%).
Tale of the Tape
Geoff Neal
Red Corner
VS
Carlos Prates
Blue Corner
+162
(38%)
Vegas Odds
-210
(68%)
35
Age
32
Southpaw
Stance
Switch
5'11"
Height
6'1"
190.5 cm
Reach
198.12 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Geoff Neal
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Vicente Luque · Aug 22L
SUBvs Shavkat Rakhmonov · Mar 23L
vs Ian Machado Garry · Feb 24W
KOvs Rafael Dos Anjos · Oct 24L
KOvs Uros Medic · Feb 26Carlos Prates
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Charles Radtke · Jun 24W
KOvs Li Jingliang · Aug 24W
KOvs Neil Magny · Nov 24L
vs Ian Machado Garry · Apr 25W
KOvs Leon Edwards · Nov 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Geoff NealMetricCarlos Prates
5.02
Strikes / min
4.41
5.50
Strikes absorbed / min
4.30
57%
Strike defense
47%
0.54
TDs / 15 min
0.18
87%
Takedown defense
77%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.48evenly matched on net striking+0.11
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Geoff NealCarlos Prates
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Geoff Neal(10 fights)Carlos Prates(7 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+18.9-18.9
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+182.0-182.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.00.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.2-0.2
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
Geoff Neal
StanceSouthpaw
Height71.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights14
Carlos Prates
StanceSwitch
Height73.0"
Reach78.0"
Fights7