Welterweight
3 Rounds
Shavkat Rakhmonov won · SUB R3
UFC Event·Saturday, March 4, 2023·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupGeoff Neal: Pressure fightervsShavkat Rakhmonov: Submission grappler
The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.
Model Prediction: Shavkat Rakhmonov wins(61.4%)
Actual result: Shavkat Rakhmonov wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Shavkat Rakhmonov enters on a 5-fight win streak.
- Stance matchup historically favors Geoff Neal (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Geoff Neal
Red Corner
VS
Shavkat Rakhmonov
Blue Corner
+400
(20%)
Vegas Odds
-500
(83%)
35
Age
31
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'11"
Height
6'1"
190.5 cm
Reach
195.58 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Geoff NealL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Vicente Luque · Aug 22L
vs Ian Machado Garry · Feb 24W
KOvs Rafael Dos Anjos · Oct 24L
KOvs Carlos Prates · Aug 25L
KOvs Uros Medic · Feb 26Shavkat RakhmonovW5 streak
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Michel Prazeres · Jun 21W
KOvs Carlston Harris · Feb 22W
SUBvs Neil Magny · Jun 22W
SUBvs Stephen Thompson · Dec 23W
vs Ian Machado Garry · Dec 24Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Geoff NealMetricShavkat Rakhmonov
5.02
Strikes / min
3.25
5.50
Strikes absorbed / min
2.17
57%
Strike defense
51%
0.54
TDs / 15 min
1.40
87%
Takedown defense
85%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
1.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.48Δ 1.56 — meaningful gap+1.08
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Geoff NealShavkat Rakhmonov
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Geoff Neal(10 fights)Shavkat Rakhmonov(7 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+13.0-13.0
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-42.042.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.40.4
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.3-0.3
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.30.3
Geoff Neal
StanceSouthpaw
Height71.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights14
Shavkat Rakhmonov
StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights7