Middleweight
3 Rounds
Gerald Meerschaert won · SUB R2
UFC Event·Saturday, March 16, 2024·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupGerald Meerschaert: Submission grapplervsBryan Barberena: Pressure fighter
The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.
Model Prediction: Gerald Meerschaert wins(55.0%)
Actual result: Gerald Meerschaert wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Gerald Meerschaert enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Bryan Barberena enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Gerald Meerschaert threatens submissions; Bryan Barberena has lost 30% of fights by sub.
- Gerald Meerschaert has a 13cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Gerald Meerschaert
Red Corner
VS
Bryan Barberena
Blue Corner
—
Vegas Odds
—
38
Age
37
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
6'1"
Height
6'0"
195.58 cm
Reach
182.88 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Gerald MeerschaertL4 streak
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Edmen Shahbazyan · Aug 24L
SUBvs Reinier de Ridder · Nov 24L
vs Brad Tavares · Apr 25L
KOvs Michal Oleksiejczuk · Aug 25L
SUBvs Kyle Daukaus · Nov 25Bryan BarberenaL3 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Matt Brown · Mar 22W
KOvs Robbie Lawler · Jul 22L
SUBvs Rafael Dos Anjos · Dec 22L
SUBvs Gunnar Nelson · Mar 23L
vs Makhmud Muradov · Jul 23Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Gerald MeerschaertMetricBryan Barberena
2.95
Strikes / min
5.35
3.44
Strikes absorbed / min
4.59
53%
Strike defense
44%
1.70
TDs / 15 min
0.13
40%
Takedown defense
50%
1.50
Sub atts / 15 min
0.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.49Δ 1.25 — meaningful gap+0.76
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Gerald MeerschaertBryan Barberena
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Gerald Meerschaert(10 fights)Bryan Barberena(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+4.2-4.2
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-28.028.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.00.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-1.51.5
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.4-0.4
Gerald Meerschaert
StanceSouthpaw
Height73.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights25
Bryan Barberena
StanceSouthpaw
Height72.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights19