Middleweight
3 Rounds
Michal Oleksiejczuk won · KO/TKO R1
UFC Event·Saturday, August 16, 2025·Chicago, Illinois, USA, USA
Style matchupGerald Meerschaert: Submission grapplervsMichal Oleksiejczuk: Pressure fighter
The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.
Model Prediction: Gerald Meerschaert wins(51.3%)
Actual result: Michal Oleksiejczuk wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Gerald Meerschaert enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Gerald Meerschaert threatens submissions; Michal Oleksiejczuk has lost 57% of fights by sub.
Tale of the Tape
Gerald Meerschaert
Red Corner
VS
Michal Oleksiejczuk
Blue Corner
+180
(36%)
Vegas Odds
-210
(68%)
38
Age
31
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
6'1"
Height
6'0"
195.58 cm
Reach
187.96 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Gerald MeerschaertL3 streak
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Bryan Barberena · Mar 24W
SUBvs Edmen Shahbazyan · Aug 24L
SUBvs Reinier de Ridder · Nov 24L
vs Brad Tavares · Apr 25L
SUBvs Kyle Daukaus · Nov 25Michal OleksiejczukW2 streak
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Michel Pereira · Mar 24L
SUBvs Kevin Holland · Jun 24L
vs Shara Magomedov · Aug 24W
KOvs Sedriques Dumas · Apr 25W
vs Marc-Andre Barriault · Feb 26Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Gerald MeerschaertMetricMichal Oleksiejczuk
2.95
Strikes / min
5.85
3.44
Strikes absorbed / min
4.50
53%
Strike defense
59%
1.70
TDs / 15 min
1.02
40%
Takedown defense
52%
1.50
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.49Δ 1.84 — meaningful gap+1.35
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Gerald MeerschaertMichal Oleksiejczuk
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Gerald Meerschaert(10 fights)Michal Oleksiejczuk(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-5.55.5
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+7.0-7.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.30.3
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.40.4
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.3-0.3
Gerald Meerschaert
StanceSouthpaw
Height73.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights25
Michal Oleksiejczuk
StanceSouthpaw
Height72.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights17