Welterweight
3 Rounds
Khamzat Chimaev won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, April 9, 2022·Jacksonville, Florida, USA, USA
Style matchupGilbert Burns: WrestlervsKhamzat Chimaev: Wrestler
Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.
Model Prediction: Khamzat Chimaev wins(56.5%)
Actual result: Khamzat Chimaev wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Gilbert Burns enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Khamzat Chimaev enters on a 5-fight win streak.
- Khamzat Chimaev has 34pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Khamzat Chimaev has a 10cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Gilbert Burns
Red Corner
VS
Khamzat Chimaev
Blue Corner
+375
(21%)
Vegas Odds
-510
(84%)
39
Age
32
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'10"
Height
6'2"
180.34 cm
Reach
190.5 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Gilbert BurnsL4 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Jorge Masvidal · Apr 23L
vs Belal Muhammad · May 23L
KOvs Jack Della Maddalena · Mar 24L
vs Sean Brady · Sep 24L
KOvs Michael Morales · May 25Khamzat ChimaevW5 streak
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Li Jingliang · Oct 21W
SUBvs Kevin Holland · Sep 22W
vs Kamaru Usman · Oct 23W
SUBvs Robert Whittaker · Oct 24W
vs Dricus Du Plessis · Aug 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Gilbert BurnsMetricKhamzat Chimaev
3.16
Strikes / min
4.01
3.68
Strikes absorbed / min
2.98
52%
Strike defense
52%
2.04
TDs / 15 min
5.32
53%
Takedown defense
87%
0.40
Sub atts / 15 min
1.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.52Δ 1.55 — meaningful gap+1.03
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Gilbert BurnsKhamzat Chimaev
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Gilbert Burns(10 fights)Khamzat Chimaev(9 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+81.2-81.2
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+112.0-112.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.50.5
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.6-0.6
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.50.5
Gilbert Burns
StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights24
Khamzat Chimaev
StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights9