Welterweight
5 Rounds
Michael Morales won · KO/TKO R1
UFC Event·Saturday, May 17, 2025·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupGilbert Burns: WrestlervsMichael Morales: Well-rounded
Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.
Model Prediction: Michael Morales wins(53.8%)
Actual result: Michael Morales wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Gilbert Burns enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Michael Morales enters on a 5-fight win streak.
- Michael Morales has 36pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Michael Morales has a 20cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Gilbert Burns
Red Corner
VS
Michael Morales
Blue Corner
+370
(21%)
Vegas Odds
-480
(83%)
39
Age
26
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'10"
Height
6'0"
180.34 cm
Reach
200.66 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Gilbert BurnsL3 streak
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Neil Magny · Jan 23W
vs Jorge Masvidal · Apr 23L
vs Belal Muhammad · May 23L
KOvs Jack Della Maddalena · Mar 24L
vs Sean Brady · Sep 24Michael MoralesW5 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Adam Fugitt · Jul 22W
vs Max Griffin · Jul 23W
vs Jake Matthews · Nov 23W
KOvs Neil Magny · Aug 24W
KOvs Sean Brady · Nov 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Gilbert BurnsMetricMichael Morales
3.16
Strikes / min
5.68
3.68
Strikes absorbed / min
3.26
52%
Strike defense
53%
2.04
TDs / 15 min
1.04
53%
Takedown defense
89%
0.40
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.52Δ 2.94 — meaningful gap+2.42
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Gilbert BurnsMichael Morales
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Gilbert Burns(10 fights)Michael Morales(7 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+8.4-8.4
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-14.014.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-1.61.6
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.5-0.5
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.2-0.2
Gilbert Burns
StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights24
Michael Morales
StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach79.0"
Fights7