Welterweight
3 Rounds
Gilbert Burns won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, July 10, 2021·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupGilbert Burns: WrestlervsStephen Thompson: Striker
Classic wrestler-vs-striker. The wrestler historically gets the edge if they can close distance and finish takedowns.
Model Prediction: Gilbert Burns wins(61.1%)
Actual result: Gilbert Burns wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Gilbert Burns enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Stephen Thompson enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.
- Stephen Thompson has a 10cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Gilbert Burns
Red Corner
VS
Stephen Thompson
Blue Corner
+130
(43%)
Vegas Odds
-162
(62%)
39
Age
43
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'10"
Height
6'0"
180.34 cm
Reach
190.5 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Gilbert BurnsL4 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Jorge Masvidal · Apr 23L
vs Belal Muhammad · May 23L
KOvs Jack Della Maddalena · Mar 24L
vs Sean Brady · Sep 24L
KOvs Michael Morales · May 25Stephen ThompsonL3 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Belal Muhammad · Dec 21W
KOvs Kevin Holland · Dec 22L
SUBvs Shavkat Rakhmonov · Dec 23L
KOvs Joaquin Buckley · Oct 24L
vs Gabriel Bonfim · Jul 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Gilbert BurnsMetricStephen Thompson
3.16
Strikes / min
4.05
3.68
Strikes absorbed / min
3.00
52%
Strike defense
54%
2.04
TDs / 15 min
0.23
53%
Takedown defense
63%
0.40
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.52Δ 1.57 — meaningful gap+1.05
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Gilbert BurnsStephen Thompson
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Gilbert Burns(10 fights)Stephen Thompson(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+18.3-18.3
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-56.056.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.50.5
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-1.11.1
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.3-0.3
Gilbert Burns
StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights24
Stephen Thompson
StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights21