Lightweight
3 Rounds
Eddie Alvarez won · S-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, June 13, 2015·Mexico City, Distrito Federal, Mexico, Mexico
Style matchupGilbert Melendez: Well-roundedvsEddie Alvarez: Wrestler
Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.
Model Prediction: Eddie Alvarez wins(62.7%)
Actual result: Eddie Alvarez wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Gilbert Melendez enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Eddie Alvarez has 21pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Gilbert Melendez has a 10cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Gilbert Melendez
Red Corner
VS
Eddie Alvarez
Blue Corner
-170
(63%)
Vegas Odds
+150
(40%)
44
Age
42
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'9"
Height
5'9"
185.42 cm
Reach
175.26 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Gilbert MelendezL4 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Diego Sanchez · Oct 13L
SUBvs Anthony Pettis · Dec 14L
vs Edson Barboza · Jul 16L
vs Jeremy Stephens · Sep 17L
vs Arnold Allen · Jul 19Eddie Alvarez
oldest →latest
W
vs Anthony Pettis · Jan 16W
KOvs Rafael Dos Anjos · Jul 16L
KOvs Conor McGregor · Nov 16W
KOvs Justin Gaethje · Dec 17L
KOvs Dustin Poirier · Jul 18Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Gilbert MelendezMetricEddie Alvarez
3.44
Strikes / min
4.32
2.53
Strikes absorbed / min
4.39
63%
Strike defense
55%
1.64
TDs / 15 min
2.92
71%
Takedown defense
92%
0.20
Sub atts / 15 min
0.50
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.91evenly matched on net striking-0.07
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Gilbert MelendezEddie Alvarez
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Gilbert Melendez(7 fights)Eddie Alvarez(7 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+4.3-4.3
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-70.070.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.4-0.4
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+2.4-2.4
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.4-0.4
Gilbert Melendez
StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights7
Eddie Alvarez
StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights7