Lightweight
3 Rounds
Evan Dunham won · S-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, February 2, 2013·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupGleison Tibau: WrestlervsEvan Dunham: Submission grappler
Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.
Model Prediction: Evan Dunham wins(56.0%)
Actual result: Evan Dunham wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Gleison Tibau enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Evan Dunham enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Tale of the Tape
Gleison Tibau
Red Corner
VS
Evan Dunham
Blue Corner
+125
(44%)
Vegas Odds
-135
(57%)
42
Age
44
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
5'10"
Height
5'10"
180.34 cm
Reach
177.8 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Gleison TibauL4 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Norman Parke · Jan 15L
SUBvs Tony Ferguson · Feb 15L
vs Abel Trujillo · Nov 15L
KOvs Islam Makhachev · Jan 18L
vs Desmond Green · Jun 18Evan DunhamL3 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Joe Lauzon · Dec 15W
vs Rick Glenn · Sep 16L
KOvs Olivier Aubin-Mercier · Apr 18L
KOvs Francisco Trinaldo · Sep 18L
SUBvs Herbert Burns · Jun 20Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Gleison TibauMetricEvan Dunham
1.95
Strikes / min
5.33
2.51
Strikes absorbed / min
3.54
63%
Strike defense
61%
4.08
TDs / 15 min
1.82
92%
Takedown defense
79%
0.80
Sub atts / 15 min
1.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.56Δ 2.35 — meaningful gap+1.79
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Gleison TibauEvan Dunham
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Gleison Tibau(10 fights)Evan Dunham(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+45.0-45.0
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-21.021.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.6-0.6
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-1.21.2
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.2-0.2
Gleison Tibau
StanceSouthpaw
Height70.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights18
Evan Dunham
StanceSouthpaw
Height70.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights17