Lightweight
3 Rounds
Khabib Nurmagomedov won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, July 7, 2012·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupGleison Tibau: WrestlervsKhabib Nurmagomedov: Wrestler
Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.
Model Prediction: Khabib Nurmagomedov wins(55.6%)
Actual result: Khabib Nurmagomedov wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Gleison Tibau enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Khabib Nurmagomedov enters on a 5-fight win streak.
- Stance matchup historically favors Gleison Tibau (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Gleison Tibau
Red Corner
VS
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Blue Corner
-153
(60%)
Vegas Odds
+143
(41%)
42
Age
37
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'10"
Height
5'10"
180.34 cm
Reach
177.8 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Gleison TibauL4 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Norman Parke · Jan 15L
SUBvs Tony Ferguson · Feb 15L
vs Abel Trujillo · Nov 15L
KOvs Islam Makhachev · Jan 18L
vs Desmond Green · Jun 18Khabib NurmagomedovW5 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Edson Barboza · Dec 17W
vs Al Iaquinta · Apr 18W
SUBvs Conor McGregor · Oct 18W
SUBvs Dustin Poirier · Sep 19W
SUBvs Justin Gaethje · Oct 20Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Gleison TibauMetricKhabib Nurmagomedov
1.95
Strikes / min
4.10
2.51
Strikes absorbed / min
1.75
63%
Strike defense
65%
4.08
TDs / 15 min
5.32
92%
Takedown defense
84%
0.80
Sub atts / 15 min
0.80
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.56Δ 2.91 — meaningful gap+2.35
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Gleison TibauKhabib Nurmagomedov
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Gleison Tibau(10 fights)Khabib Nurmagomedov(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+35.0-35.0
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+62.0-62.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.20.2
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+1.0-1.0
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.8-0.8
Gleison Tibau
StanceSouthpaw
Height70.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights18
Khabib Nurmagomedov
StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights13