Lightweight
3 Rounds
Gleison Tibau won · SUB R2
UFC Event·Saturday, May 28, 2011·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupGleison Tibau: WrestlervsRafaello Oliveira: Wrestler
Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.
Model Prediction: Gleison Tibau wins(52.8%)
Actual result: Gleison Tibau wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Gleison Tibau enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Gleison Tibau has 81pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Gleison Tibau (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Gleison Tibau
Red Corner
VS
Rafaello Oliveira
Blue Corner
-430
(81%)
Vegas Odds
+380
(21%)
42
Age
44
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'10"
Height
5'8"
180.34 cm
Reach
180.34 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Gleison TibauL4 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Norman Parke · Jan 15L
SUBvs Tony Ferguson · Feb 15L
vs Abel Trujillo · Nov 15L
KOvs Islam Makhachev · Jan 18L
vs Desmond Green · Jun 18Rafaello OliveiraL2 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Andre Winner · Mar 10L
KOvs Yves Edwards · Oct 11W
vs Yoislandy Izquierdo · Jul 12L
KOvs Edson Barboza · Jul 13L
KOvs Erik Koch · Feb 14Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Gleison TibauMetricRafaello Oliveira
1.95
Strikes / min
2.19
2.51
Strikes absorbed / min
3.38
63%
Strike defense
59%
4.08
TDs / 15 min
2.49
92%
Takedown defense
11%
0.80
Sub atts / 15 min
1.60
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.56evenly matched on net striking-1.19
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Gleison TibauRafaello Oliveira
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Gleison Tibau(10 fights)Rafaello Oliveira(6 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+37.0-37.0
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-353.0353.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+1.4-1.4
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.70.7
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.30.3
Gleison Tibau
StanceSouthpaw
Height70.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights18
Rafaello Oliveira
StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights6