Lightweight
3 Rounds
Grant Dawson won · U-DEC R3
GD
DF
Grant DawsonvsDiego Ferreira
UFC Event · Saturday, January 18, 2025Inglewood, California, USA, USA
Style matchupGrant Dawson: WrestlervsDiego Ferreira: Well-rounded
Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.
Model Prediction: Grant Dawson wins(76.3%)
Actual result: Grant Dawson wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Diego Ferreira is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Grant Dawson has lost 100% of fights by KO.
- Diego Ferreira has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Stance matchup historically favors Grant Dawson (52.9%).
Tale of the Tape
Grant Dawson
Red Corner
VS
Diego Ferreira
Blue Corner
-245
(71%)
Vegas Odds
+200
(33%)
32
Age
41
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
5'10"
Height
5'9"
182.88 cm
Reach
187.96 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Grant Dawson
oldest →latest
W
vs Damir Ismagulov · Jul 23L
KOvs King Green · Oct 23W
vs Joe Solecki · Jun 24W
KOvs Rafa Garcia · Oct 24L
KOvs Manuel Torres · Dec 25Diego Ferreira
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Gregor Gillespie · May 21L
KOvs Mateusz Gamrot · Dec 21W
KOvs Michael Johnson · May 23W
KOvs Mateusz Rebecki · May 24L
KOvs Alexander Hernandez · Sep 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Grant DawsonMetricDiego Ferreira
3.14
Strikes / min
4.70
2.14
Strikes absorbed / min
3.46
44%
Strike defense
55%
3.58
TDs / 15 min
0.82
66%
Takedown defense
57%
1.40
Sub atts / 15 min
0.60
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.00evenly matched on net striking+1.24
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Grant DawsonDiego Ferreira
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Grant Dawson(10 fights)Diego Ferreira(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+47.0-47.0
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-154.0154.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.20.2
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.5-0.5
Grant Dawson
StanceSwitch
Height70.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights13
Diego Ferreira
StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights17