Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- King Green enters on a 4-fight win streak.
- Grant Dawson threatens submissions; King Green has lost 33% of fights by sub.
- King Green has 18pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Stance matchup historically favors Grant Dawson (52.9%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Grant Dawson
oldest →W
KOvs Rafa Garcia · Oct 24W
vs Diego Ferreira · Jan 25L
KOvs Manuel Torres · Dec 25W
SUBvs Mateusz Rebecki · May 26 King GreenW4 streak
oldest →L
KOvs Mauricio Ruffy · Mar 25W
vs Lance Gibson Jr. · Dec 25W
KOvs Daniel Zellhuber · Feb 26W
SUBvs Jeremy Stephens · May 26W
KOvs Terrance McKinney · Jul 26 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Grant DawsonMetricKing Green
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+1.00Δ 1.91 — meaningful gap+2.91
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Grant DawsonKing Green
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Grant Dawson(10 fights)King Green(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -39.3|Blue +39.3
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.0|Blue +0.0
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.5|Blue -0.5
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +28.0|Blue -28.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Grant DawsonTargetKing Green
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1King Green edged it
Sig. strikes0
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
7Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:05Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
