Lightweight
3 Rounds
Grant Dawson won · SUB R3
UFC Event·Saturday, November 5, 2022·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupGrant Dawson: WrestlervsMark Madsen: Wrestler
Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.
Model Prediction: Grant Dawson wins(58.9%)
Actual result: Grant Dawson wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Stance matchup historically favors Grant Dawson (52.9%).
Tale of the Tape
Grant Dawson
Red Corner
VS
Mark Madsen
Blue Corner
-200
(67%)
Vegas Odds
+170
(37%)
32
Age
41
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
5'10"
Height
5'8"
182.88 cm
Reach
182.88 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Grant Dawson
oldest →latest
L
KOvs King Green · Oct 23W
vs Joe Solecki · Jun 24W
KOvs Rafa Garcia · Oct 24W
vs Diego Ferreira · Jan 25L
KOvs Manuel Torres · Dec 25Mark Madsen
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Danilo Belluardo · Sep 19W
vs Austin Hubbard · Mar 20W
vs Clay Guida · Aug 21W
vs Vinc Pichel · Apr 22L
KOvs Jared Gordon · Nov 23Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Grant DawsonMetricMark Madsen
3.14
Strikes / min
3.56
2.14
Strikes absorbed / min
3.97
44%
Strike defense
52%
3.58
TDs / 15 min
2.86
66%
Takedown defense
62%
1.40
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.00Δ 1.41 — meaningful gap-0.41
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Grant DawsonMark Madsen
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Grant Dawson(10 fights)Mark Madsen(6 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+26.1-26.1
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-21.021.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
0.00.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
Grant Dawson
StanceSwitch
Height70.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights13
Mark Madsen
StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights6