Lightweight
3 Rounds
Grant Dawson won · KO/TKO R2
UFC Event·Saturday, October 12, 2024·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupGrant Dawson: WrestlervsRafa Garcia: Wrestler
Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.
Model Prediction: Grant Dawson wins(65.6%)
Actual result: Grant Dawson wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Rafa Garcia enters on a 4-fight win streak.
- Rafa Garcia has 17pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Stance matchup historically favors Grant Dawson (52.9%).
Tale of the Tape
Grant Dawson
Red Corner
VS
Rafa Garcia
Blue Corner
-380
(79%)
Vegas Odds
+300
(25%)
32
Age
31
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
5'10"
Height
5'7"
182.88 cm
Reach
177.8 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Grant Dawson
oldest →latest
W
vs Damir Ismagulov · Jul 23L
KOvs King Green · Oct 23W
vs Joe Solecki · Jun 24W
vs Diego Ferreira · Jan 25L
KOvs Manuel Torres · Dec 25Rafa GarciaW4 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Drakkar Klose · Jul 22W
vs Maheshate · Dec 22W
vs Clay Guida · Apr 23W
vs Vinc Pichel · Mar 25W
KOvs Jared Gordon · Sep 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Grant DawsonMetricRafa Garcia
3.14
Strikes / min
4.28
2.14
Strikes absorbed / min
4.42
44%
Strike defense
61%
3.58
TDs / 15 min
3.22
66%
Takedown defense
77%
1.40
Sub atts / 15 min
0.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.00Δ 1.14 — meaningful gap-0.14
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Grant DawsonRafa Garcia
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Grant Dawson(10 fights)Rafa Garcia(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+96.5-96.5
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-413.0413.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.3-0.3
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.3-0.3
Grant Dawson
StanceSwitch
Height70.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights13
Rafa Garcia
StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights10