Lightweight
3 Rounds
Nate Diaz won · KO/TKO R1
UFC Event·Saturday, November 30, 2013·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupGray Maynard: WrestlervsNate Diaz: Submission grappler
Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.
Model Prediction: Nate Diaz wins(52.7%)
Actual result: Nate Diaz wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Gray Maynard has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Gray Maynard has 40pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Nate Diaz (53.5%).
- Nate Diaz has a 15cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Gray Maynard
Red Corner
VS
Nate Diaz
Blue Corner
-120
(55%)
Vegas Odds
+110
(48%)
47
Age
41
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'9"
Height
6'0"
177.8 cm
Reach
193.04 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Gray Maynard
oldest →latest
L
vs Alexander Yakovlev · Apr 15W
vs Fernando Bruno · Jul 16L
vs Ryan Hall · Dec 16W
vs Teruto Ishihara · Jul 17L
KOvs Nik Lentz · Oct 18Nate Diaz
oldest →latest
L
vs Conor McGregor · Aug 16W
vs Anthony Pettis · Aug 19L
KOvs Jorge Masvidal · Nov 19L
vs Leon Edwards · Jun 21W
SUBvs Tony Ferguson · Sep 22Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Gray MaynardMetricNate Diaz
1.92
Strikes / min
4.57
2.64
Strikes absorbed / min
3.77
66%
Strike defense
52%
2.91
TDs / 15 min
1.05
81%
Takedown defense
41%
0.70
Sub atts / 15 min
1.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.72Δ 1.52 — meaningful gap+0.80
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Gray MaynardNate Diaz
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Gray Maynard(10 fights)Nate Diaz(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-13.313.3
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-35.035.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.40.4
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
Gray Maynard
StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights11
Nate Diaz
StanceSouthpaw
Height72.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights18