Lightweight
3 Rounds
Gregor Gillespie won · SUB R2
UFC Event·Saturday, September 16, 2017·Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA, USA
Model Prediction: Gregor Gillespie wins(77.0%)
Actual result: Gregor Gillespie wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Gregor Gillespie has 70pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Jason Gonzalez (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Gregor Gillespie
Red Corner
VS
Jason Gonzalez
Blue Corner
-420
(81%)
Vegas Odds
+335
(23%)
39
Age
36
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'7"
Height
6'2"
180.34 cm
Reach
187.96 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Gregor Gillespie
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Jordan Rinaldi · Jan 18W
SUBvs Vinc Pichel · Jun 18W
KOvs Yancy Medeiros · Jan 19L
KOvs Kevin Lee · Nov 19W
KOvs Diego Ferreira · May 21Jason Gonzalez
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Drew Dober · Sep 16W
SUBvs JC Cottrell · Jan 17L
SUBvs Jim Miller · Apr 19Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Gregor GillespieMetricJason Gonzalez
3.74
Strikes / min
3.06
2.30
Strikes absorbed / min
3.13
57%
Strike defense
58%
6.86
TDs / 15 min
0.00
100%
Takedown defense
30%
0.80
Sub atts / 15 min
1.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.44Δ 1.51 — meaningful gap-0.07
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Gregor GillespieJason Gonzalez
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Gregor Gillespie(8 fights)Jason Gonzalez(4 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+38.0-38.0
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-70.070.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.8-0.8
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+1.0-1.0
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.3-0.3
Gregor Gillespie
StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights8
Jason Gonzalez
StanceSouthpaw
Height74.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights4