Welterweight
3 Rounds
Gunnar Nelson won · SUB R2
UFC Event·Saturday, March 18, 2017·London, England, United Kingdom, United Kingdom
Style matchupGunnar Nelson: WrestlervsAlan Jouban: Pressure fighter
The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.
Model Prediction: Gunnar Nelson wins(56.5%)
Actual result: Gunnar Nelson wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Alan Jouban has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Stance matchup historically favors Gunnar Nelson (54.1%).
Tale of the Tape
Gunnar Nelson
Red Corner
VS
Alan Jouban
Blue Corner
-335
(77%)
Vegas Odds
+275
(27%)
37
Age
44
Switch
Stance
Southpaw
5'11"
Height
6'0"
182.88 cm
Reach
185.42 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Gunnar Nelson
oldest →latest
L
vs Leon Edwards · Mar 19L
vs Gilbert Burns · Sep 19W
vs Takashi Sato · Mar 22W
SUBvs Bryan Barberena · Mar 23L
vs Kevin Holland · Mar 25Alan Jouban
oldest →latest
W
vs Mike Perry · Dec 16L
KOvs Niko Price · Aug 17W
KOvs Ben Saunders · Feb 18L
vs Dwight Grant · Apr 19W
vs Jared Gooden · Nov 20Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Gunnar NelsonMetricAlan Jouban
1.77
Strikes / min
5.67
3.06
Strikes absorbed / min
3.77
48%
Strike defense
60%
2.00
TDs / 15 min
0.51
68%
Takedown defense
58%
1.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.29Δ 3.19 — meaningful gap+1.90
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Gunnar NelsonAlan Jouban
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Gunnar Nelson(10 fights)Alan Jouban(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-3.93.9
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+223.0-223.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.40.4
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.90.9
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.5-0.5
Gunnar Nelson
StanceSwitch
Height71.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights16
Alan Jouban
StanceSouthpaw
Height72.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights13