Welterweight
3 Rounds
Gunnar Nelson won · SUB R1
UFC Event·Saturday, July 11, 2015·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Model Prediction: Gunnar Nelson wins(72.6%)
Actual result: Gunnar Nelson wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Brandon Thatch enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Gunnar Nelson threatens submissions; Brandon Thatch has lost 100% of fights by sub.
- Gunnar Nelson has 18pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Gunnar Nelson
Red Corner
VS
Brandon Thatch
Blue Corner
+150
(40%)
Vegas Odds
-170
(63%)
37
Age
40
Switch
Stance
Switch
5'11"
Height
6'2"
182.88 cm
Reach
187.96 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Gunnar Nelson
oldest →latest
L
vs Leon Edwards · Mar 19L
vs Gilbert Burns · Sep 19W
vs Takashi Sato · Mar 22W
SUBvs Bryan Barberena · Mar 23L
vs Kevin Holland · Mar 25Brandon ThatchL3 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Justin Edwards · Aug 13W
KOvs Paulo Thiago · Nov 13L
SUBvs Benson Henderson · Feb 15L
SUBvs Siyar Bahadurzada · Mar 16L
SUBvs Niko Price · Dec 16Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Gunnar NelsonMetricBrandon Thatch
1.77
Strikes / min
2.70
3.06
Strikes absorbed / min
3.63
48%
Strike defense
52%
2.00
TDs / 15 min
1.36
68%
Takedown defense
50%
1.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.70
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.29evenly matched on net striking-0.93
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Gunnar NelsonBrandon Thatch
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Gunnar Nelson(10 fights)Brandon Thatch(6 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+27.8-27.8
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+133.0-133.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.6-0.6
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.3-0.3
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.3-0.3
Gunnar Nelson
StanceSwitch
Height71.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights16
Brandon Thatch
StanceSwitch
Height74.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights6