Welterweight
3 Rounds
Gunnar Nelson won · SUB R1
UFC Event·Saturday, March 18, 2023·London, England, United Kingdom, United Kingdom
Style matchupGunnar Nelson: WrestlervsBryan Barberena: Pressure fighter
The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.
Model Prediction: Gunnar Nelson wins(69.2%)
Actual result: Gunnar Nelson wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Bryan Barberena enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Gunnar Nelson threatens submissions; Bryan Barberena has lost 30% of fights by sub.
- Gunnar Nelson has 18pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Gunnar Nelson (54.1%).
Tale of the Tape
Gunnar Nelson
Red Corner
VS
Bryan Barberena
Blue Corner
-350
(78%)
Vegas Odds
+310
(24%)
37
Age
37
Switch
Stance
Southpaw
5'11"
Height
6'0"
182.88 cm
Reach
182.88 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Gunnar Nelson
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Alex Oliveira · Dec 18L
vs Leon Edwards · Mar 19L
vs Gilbert Burns · Sep 19W
vs Takashi Sato · Mar 22L
vs Kevin Holland · Mar 25Bryan BarberenaL3 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Matt Brown · Mar 22W
KOvs Robbie Lawler · Jul 22L
SUBvs Rafael Dos Anjos · Dec 22L
vs Makhmud Muradov · Jul 23L
SUBvs Gerald Meerschaert · Mar 24Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Gunnar NelsonMetricBryan Barberena
1.77
Strikes / min
5.35
3.06
Strikes absorbed / min
4.59
48%
Strike defense
44%
2.00
TDs / 15 min
0.13
68%
Takedown defense
50%
1.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.29Δ 2.05 — meaningful gap+0.76
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Gunnar NelsonBryan Barberena
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Gunnar Nelson(10 fights)Bryan Barberena(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+22.9-22.9
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+259.0-259.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.6-0.6
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-1.11.1
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.3-0.3
Gunnar Nelson
StanceSwitch
Height71.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights16
Bryan Barberena
StanceSouthpaw
Height72.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights19