Welterweight
3 Rounds
Gilbert Burns won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, September 28, 2019·Copenhagen, Denmark, Denmark
Style matchupGunnar Nelson: WrestlervsGilbert Burns: Wrestler
Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.
Model Prediction: Gunnar Nelson wins(56.3%)
Actual result: Gilbert Burns wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Gilbert Burns enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Gunnar Nelson has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Gunnar Nelson (52.9%).
Tale of the Tape
Gunnar Nelson
Red Corner
VS
Gilbert Burns
Blue Corner
-105
(51%)
Vegas Odds
-115
(53%)
37
Age
39
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
5'11"
Height
5'10"
182.88 cm
Reach
180.34 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Gunnar Nelson
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Alex Oliveira · Dec 18L
vs Leon Edwards · Mar 19W
vs Takashi Sato · Mar 22W
SUBvs Bryan Barberena · Mar 23L
vs Kevin Holland · Mar 25Gilbert BurnsL4 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Jorge Masvidal · Apr 23L
vs Belal Muhammad · May 23L
KOvs Jack Della Maddalena · Mar 24L
vs Sean Brady · Sep 24L
KOvs Michael Morales · May 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Gunnar NelsonMetricGilbert Burns
1.77
Strikes / min
3.16
3.06
Strikes absorbed / min
3.68
48%
Strike defense
52%
2.00
TDs / 15 min
2.04
68%
Takedown defense
53%
1.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.29evenly matched on net striking-0.52
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Gunnar NelsonGilbert Burns
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Gunnar Nelson(10 fights)Gilbert Burns(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-26.826.8
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+147.0-147.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.80.8
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.20.2
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
Gunnar Nelson
StanceSwitch
Height71.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights16
Gilbert Burns
StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights24