Welterweight
3 Rounds
Gunnar Nelson won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, February 16, 2013·London, England, United Kingdom, United Kingdom
Model Prediction: Gunnar Nelson wins(73.7%)
Actual result: Gunnar Nelson wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Gunnar Nelson has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Gunnar Nelson (52.9%).
Tale of the Tape
Gunnar Nelson
Red Corner
VS
Jorge Santiago
Blue Corner
-330
(77%)
Vegas Odds
+300
(25%)
37
Age
45
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
5'11"
Height
6'1"
182.88 cm
Reach
190.5 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Gunnar Nelson
oldest →latest
L
vs Leon Edwards · Mar 19L
vs Gilbert Burns · Sep 19W
vs Takashi Sato · Mar 22W
SUBvs Bryan Barberena · Mar 23L
vs Kevin Holland · Mar 25Jorge SantiagoL2 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Brian Stann · May 11L
vs Demian Maia · Oct 11Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Gunnar NelsonMetricJorge Santiago
1.77
Strikes / min
1.69
3.06
Strikes absorbed / min
2.62
48%
Strike defense
56%
2.00
TDs / 15 min
0.58
68%
Takedown defense
52%
1.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.80
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.29evenly matched on net striking-0.93
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Gunnar NelsonJorge Santiago
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Gunnar Nelson(10 fights)Jorge Santiago(3 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+49.1-49.1
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-357.0357.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+1.9-1.9
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.80.8
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.40.4
Gunnar Nelson
StanceSwitch
Height71.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights16
Jorge Santiago
StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights3