Welterweight
3 Rounds
Kevin Holland won · U-DEC R3
GN
KH
Gunnar NelsonvsKevin Holland
UFC Event · Saturday, March 22, 2025London, England, United Kingdom, United Kingdom
Style matchupGunnar Nelson: WrestlervsKevin Holland: Well-rounded
Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.
Model Prediction: Gunnar Nelson wins(74.4%)
Actual result: Kevin Holland wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Stance matchup historically favors Gunnar Nelson (52.9%).
- Kevin Holland has a 23cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Gunnar Nelson
Red Corner
VS
Kevin Holland
Blue Corner
-126
(56%)
Vegas Odds
+108
(48%)
37
Age
33
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
5'11"
Height
6'3"
182.88 cm
Reach
205.74 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Gunnar NelsonW2 streak
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Alex Oliveira · Dec 18L
vs Leon Edwards · Mar 19L
vs Gilbert Burns · Sep 19W
vs Takashi Sato · Mar 22W
SUBvs Bryan Barberena · Mar 23Kevin HollandL2 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Roman Dolidze · Oct 24L
SUBvs Reinier de Ridder · Jan 25W
SUBvs Vicente Luque · Jun 25L
vs Daniel Rodriguez · Jul 25L
vs Mike Malott · Oct 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Gunnar NelsonMetricKevin Holland
1.77
Strikes / min
4.24
3.06
Strikes absorbed / min
3.21
48%
Strike defense
50%
2.00
TDs / 15 min
0.79
68%
Takedown defense
57%
1.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.60
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.29Δ 2.32 — meaningful gap+1.03
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Gunnar NelsonKevin Holland
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Gunnar Nelson(10 fights)Kevin Holland(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+46.4-46.4
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+672.0-672.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+1.6-1.6
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.5-0.5
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
Gunnar Nelson
StanceSwitch
Height71.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights16
Kevin Holland
StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach81.0"
Fights27