Welterweight
5 Rounds
Rick Story won · S-DEC R5
UFC Event·Saturday, October 4, 2014·Stockholm, Sweden, Sweden
Style matchupGunnar Nelson: WrestlervsRick Story: Wrestler
Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.
Model Prediction: Gunnar Nelson wins(68.0%)
Actual result: Rick Story wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Rick Story has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Stance matchup historically favors Gunnar Nelson (54.1%).
Tale of the Tape
Gunnar Nelson
Red Corner
VS
Rick Story
Blue Corner
-360
(78%)
Vegas Odds
+325
(24%)
37
Age
41
Switch
Stance
Southpaw
5'11"
Height
5'9"
182.88 cm
Reach
180.34 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Gunnar Nelson
oldest →latest
L
vs Leon Edwards · Mar 19L
vs Gilbert Burns · Sep 19W
vs Takashi Sato · Mar 22W
SUBvs Bryan Barberena · Mar 23L
vs Kevin Holland · Mar 25Rick Story
oldest →latest
W
vs Brian Ebersole · Nov 13L
vs Kelvin Gastelum · Mar 14W
SUBvs Leonardo Mafra · Jul 14W
vs Tarec Saffiedine · May 16L
KOvs Donald Cerrone · Aug 16Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Gunnar NelsonMetricRick Story
1.77
Strikes / min
3.80
3.06
Strikes absorbed / min
2.17
48%
Strike defense
62%
2.00
TDs / 15 min
2.53
68%
Takedown defense
63%
1.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.90
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.29Δ 2.92 — meaningful gap+1.63
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Gunnar NelsonRick Story
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Gunnar Nelson(10 fights)Rick Story(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+24.3-24.3
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-3.03.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.7-0.7
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-1.41.4
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.20.2
Gunnar Nelson
StanceSwitch
Height71.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights16
Rick Story
StanceSouthpaw
Height69.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights16