Welterweight
3 Rounds
Gunnar Nelson won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, March 19, 2022·London, England, United Kingdom, United Kingdom
Model Prediction: Gunnar Nelson wins(75.3%)
Actual result: Gunnar Nelson wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Takashi Sato enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Gunnar Nelson threatens submissions; Takashi Sato has lost 40% of fights by sub.
- Stance matchup historically favors Gunnar Nelson (54.1%).
Tale of the Tape
Gunnar Nelson
Red Corner
VS
Takashi Sato
Blue Corner
-525
(84%)
Vegas Odds
+385
(21%)
37
Age
35
Switch
Stance
Southpaw
5'11"
Height
5'10"
182.88 cm
Reach
185.42 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Gunnar Nelson
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Alex Oliveira · Dec 18L
vs Leon Edwards · Mar 19L
vs Gilbert Burns · Sep 19W
SUBvs Bryan Barberena · Mar 23L
vs Kevin Holland · Mar 25Takashi SatoL3 streak
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Belal Muhammad · Sep 19W
KOvs Jason Witt · Jun 20L
SUBvs Miguel Baeza · Nov 20L
KOvs Bryan Battle · Aug 22L
vs Themba Gorimbo · May 23Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Gunnar NelsonMetricTakashi Sato
1.77
Strikes / min
2.21
3.06
Strikes absorbed / min
3.73
48%
Strike defense
44%
2.00
TDs / 15 min
0.76
68%
Takedown defense
60%
1.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.29evenly matched on net striking-1.52
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Gunnar NelsonTakashi Sato
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Gunnar Nelson(10 fights)Takashi Sato(7 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+50.6-50.6
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+427.0-427.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.30.3
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+1.0-1.0
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.3-0.3
Gunnar Nelson
StanceSwitch
Height71.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights16
Takashi Sato
StanceSouthpaw
Height70.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights7