Bantamweight
3 Rounds
Gustavo Lopez won · SUB
UFC Event·Saturday, November 7, 2020·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Model Prediction: Gustavo Lopez wins(59.8%)
Actual result: Gustavo Lopez wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Anthony Birchak is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Gustavo Lopez has lost 50% of fights by KO.
- Gustavo Lopez threatens submissions; Anthony Birchak has lost 50% of fights by sub.
- Anthony Birchak has 30pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Gustavo Lopez
Red Corner
VS
Anthony Birchak
Blue Corner
-134
(57%)
Vegas Odds
+108
(48%)
36
Age
40
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'5"
Height
5'8"
170.18 cm
Reach
175.26 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Gustavo LopezL2 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Merab Dvalishvili · Jun 20L
KOvs Adrian Yanez · Mar 21Anthony Birchak
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Ian Entwistle · Dec 14W
KOvs Joe Soto · Jun 15L
KOvs Thomas Almeida · Nov 15W
vs Dileno Lopes · Jul 16L
KOvs Tony Gravely · Apr 21Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Gustavo LopezMetricAnthony Birchak
2.48
Strikes / min
3.93
3.87
Strikes absorbed / min
3.67
57%
Strike defense
56%
1.74
TDs / 15 min
0.48
31%
Takedown defense
61%
0.70
Sub atts / 15 min
0.50
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.39Δ 1.65 — meaningful gap+0.26
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Gustavo LopezAnthony Birchak
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Gustavo Lopez(3 fights)Anthony Birchak(6 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-16.616.6
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-1437.01437.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-1.31.3
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.60.6
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.20.2
Gustavo Lopez
StanceOrthodox
Height65.0"
Reach67.0"
Fights3
Anthony Birchak
StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights6