Lightweight
3 Rounds
Kaue Fernandes won · KO/TKO R1
UFC Event·Saturday, September 6, 2025·Paris, Ile-de-France, France, France
Style matchupHarry Hardwick: Pressure fightervsKaue Fernandes: Elusive striker
The elusive striker must use the cage and footwork. The pressure fighter forces the war.
Model Prediction: Kaue Fernandes wins(58.4%)
Actual result: Kaue Fernandes wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Kaue Fernandes is a KO finisher (67% of wins). Harry Hardwick has lost 100% of fights by KO.
- Kaue Fernandes has 18pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Kaue Fernandes has 76pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Harry Hardwick (52.9%).
Tale of the Tape
Harry Hardwick
Red Corner
VS
Kaue Fernandes
Blue Corner
+176
(36%)
Vegas Odds
+275
(27%)
31
Age
31
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
5'8"
Height
5'9"
180.34 cm
Reach
185.42 cm
Recent Form
Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Harry Hardwick
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Marwan Rahiki · Mar 26Kaue FernandesW2 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Marc Diakiese · Nov 23W
KOvs Mohammad Yahya · Aug 24W
vs Guram Kutateladze · Mar 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Harry HardwickMetricKaue Fernandes
5.47
Strikes / min
4.28
8.54
Strikes absorbed / min
1.42
44%
Strike defense
62%
0.00
TDs / 15 min
1.18
0%
Takedown defense
76%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-3.07Δ 5.93 — meaningful gap+2.86
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Harry HardwickKaue Fernandes
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Harry Hardwick(2 fights)Kaue Fernandes(4 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-18.818.8
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.70.7
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+49.6-49.6
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+49.6-49.6
Harry Hardwick
StanceSwitch
Height68.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights2
Kaue Fernandes
StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights4