Welterweight
5 Rounds
Ian Machado Garry won · U-DEC R5
UFC Event·Saturday, April 26, 2025·Kansas City, Missouri, USA, USA
Style matchupIan Machado Garry: Well-roundedvsCarlos Prates: Pressure fighter
The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.
Model Prediction: Ian Machado Garry wins(55.5%)
Actual result: Ian Machado Garry wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Carlos Prates enters on a 5-fight win streak.
- Stance matchup historically favors Carlos Prates (52.9%).
- Carlos Prates has a 10cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Ian Machado Garry
Red Corner
VS
Carlos Prates
Blue Corner
-164
(62%)
Vegas Odds
+138
(42%)
28
Age
32
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
6'3"
Height
6'1"
187.96 cm
Reach
198.12 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Ian Machado Garry
oldest →latest
W
vs Neil Magny · Aug 23W
vs Geoff Neal · Feb 24W
vs Michael Page · Jun 24L
vs Shavkat Rakhmonov · Dec 24W
vs Belal Muhammad · Nov 25Carlos PratesW5 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Charles Radtke · Jun 24W
KOvs Li Jingliang · Aug 24W
KOvs Neil Magny · Nov 24W
KOvs Geoff Neal · Aug 25W
KOvs Leon Edwards · Nov 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Ian Machado GarryMetricCarlos Prates
4.78
Strikes / min
4.41
2.86
Strikes absorbed / min
4.30
52%
Strike defense
47%
0.92
TDs / 15 min
0.18
80%
Takedown defense
77%
0.40
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.92Δ 1.81 — meaningful gap+0.11
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Ian Machado GarryCarlos Prates
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Ian Machado Garry(8 fights)Carlos Prates(7 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+2.3-2.3
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-28.028.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.80.8
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.00.0
Ian Machado Garry
StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights8
Carlos Prates
StanceSwitch
Height73.0"
Reach78.0"
Fights7