Welterweight
3 Rounds
Ian Machado Garry won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, June 29, 2024·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Model Prediction: Ian Machado Garry wins(59.0%)
Actual result: Ian Machado Garry wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Michael Page enters on a 4-fight win streak.
- Michael Page has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Stance matchup historically favors Michael Page (52.9%).
- Michael Page has a 13cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Ian Machado Garry
Red Corner
VS
Michael Page
Blue Corner
-200
(67%)
Vegas Odds
+154
(39%)
28
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
6'3"
Height
6'3"
187.96 cm
Reach
200.66 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Ian Machado GarryW2 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Neil Magny · Aug 23W
vs Geoff Neal · Feb 24L
vs Shavkat Rakhmonov · Dec 24W
vs Carlos Prates · Apr 25W
vs Belal Muhammad · Nov 25Michael PageW4 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Kevin Holland · Mar 24W
vs Shara Magomedov · Feb 25W
vs Jared Cannonier · Aug 25W
vs Sam Patterson · Mar 26Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Ian Machado GarryMetricMichael Page
4.78
Strikes / min
2.28
2.86
Strikes absorbed / min
1.51
52%
Strike defense
62%
0.92
TDs / 15 min
0.19
80%
Takedown defense
70%
0.40
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.92Δ 1.15 — meaningful gap+0.77
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Ian Machado GarryMichael Page
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Ian Machado Garry(8 fights)Michael Page(5 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+62.4-62.4
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+21.0-21.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
0.00.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.2-0.2
Ian Machado Garry
StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights8
Michael Page
StanceSwitch
Height75.0"
Reach79.0"
Fights5