Light Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Ibo Aslan won · KO/TKO R1
UFC Event·Saturday, October 26, 2024·Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, United Arab Emirates
Model Prediction: Ibo Aslan wins(68.9%)
Actual result: Ibo Aslan wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Ibo Aslan enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Rafael Cerqueira enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Ibo Aslan is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Rafael Cerqueira has lost 50% of fights by KO.
- Ibo Aslan has 20pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Ibo Aslan has 51pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Rafael Cerqueira (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Ibo Aslan
Red Corner
VS
Rafael Cerqueira
Blue Corner
-108
(52%)
Vegas Odds
-112
(53%)
30
Age
36
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
6'3"
Height
6'3"
195.58 cm
Reach
193.04 cm
Recent Form
Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Ibo AslanL3 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Anton Turkalj · Mar 24L
SUBvs Ion Cutelaba · Feb 25L
vs Billy Elekana · Jul 25L
KOvs Iwo Baraniewski · Dec 25Rafael CerqueiraL3 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Modestas Bukauskas · Feb 25L
vs Julius Walker · Aug 25L
SUBvs Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev · Nov 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Ibo AslanMetricRafael Cerqueira
5.75
Strikes / min
1.56
3.96
Strikes absorbed / min
5.05
56%
Strike defense
36%
0.00
TDs / 15 min
0.00
87%
Takedown defense
36%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.79Δ 5.28 — meaningful gap-3.49
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Ibo AslanRafael Cerqueira
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Ibo Aslan(5 fights)Rafael Cerqueira(4 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+14.0-14.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+1.0-1.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-49.449.4
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-50.050.0
Ibo Aslan
StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights5
Rafael Cerqueira
StanceSouthpaw
Height75.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights4