Lightweight
5 Rounds
🏆 Title Bout
Ilia Topuria won · KO/TKO R1
UFC Event·Saturday, June 28, 2025·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupIlia Topuria: Submission grapplervsCharles Oliveira: Wrestler
Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.
Model Prediction: Ilia Topuria wins(52.3%)
Actual result: Ilia Topuria wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Ilia Topuria enters on a 5-fight win streak.
- Charles Oliveira enters on a 3-fight win streak.
- Ilia Topuria has 16pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Ilia Topuria has 39pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Charles Oliveira has a 13cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Ilia Topuria
Red Corner
VS
Charles Oliveira
Blue Corner
-405
(80%)
Vegas Odds
+320
(24%)
29
Age
36
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'7"
Height
5'10"
175.26 cm
Reach
187.96 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Ilia TopuriaW5 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Jai Herbert · Mar 22W
SUBvs Bryce Mitchell · Dec 22W
vs Josh Emmett · Jun 23W
KOvs Alexander Volkanovski · Feb 24W
KOvs Max Holloway · Oct 24Charles OliveiraW3 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Beneil Dariush · Jun 23L
vs Arman Tsarukyan · Apr 24W
vs Michael Chandler · Nov 24W
SUBvs Mateusz Gamrot · Oct 25W
vs Max Holloway · Mar 26Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Ilia TopuriaMetricCharles Oliveira
4.81
Strikes / min
3.23
3.83
Strikes absorbed / min
3.05
64%
Strike defense
48%
1.96
TDs / 15 min
2.29
93%
Takedown defense
54%
1.10
Sub atts / 15 min
2.60
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.98evenly matched on net striking+0.18
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Ilia TopuriaCharles Oliveira
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Ilia Topuria(9 fights)Charles Oliveira(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-60.360.3
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+21.0-21.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.7-0.7
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.70.7
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.2-0.2
Ilia Topuria
StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights9
Charles Oliveira
StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights36