Featherweight
5 Rounds
🏆 Title Bout
Ilia Topuria won · KO/TKO R3
UFC Event·Saturday, October 26, 2024·Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, United Arab Emirates
Style matchupIlia Topuria: Submission grapplervsMax Holloway: Pressure fighter
The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.
Model Prediction: Ilia Topuria wins(55.2%)
Actual result: Ilia Topuria wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Ilia Topuria enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Tale of the Tape
Ilia Topuria
Red Corner
VS
Max Holloway
Blue Corner
-305
(75%)
Vegas Odds
+245
(29%)
29
Age
34
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'7"
Height
5'11"
175.26 cm
Reach
175.26 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Ilia TopuriaW5 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Jai Herbert · Mar 22W
SUBvs Bryce Mitchell · Dec 22W
vs Josh Emmett · Jun 23W
KOvs Alexander Volkanovski · Feb 24W
KOvs Charles Oliveira · Jun 25Max Holloway
oldest →latest
W
vs Arnold Allen · Apr 23W
KOvs Chan Sung Jung · Aug 23W
KOvs Justin Gaethje · Apr 24W
vs Dustin Poirier · Jul 25L
vs Charles Oliveira · Mar 26Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Ilia TopuriaMetricMax Holloway
4.81
Strikes / min
6.91
3.83
Strikes absorbed / min
4.61
64%
Strike defense
58%
1.96
TDs / 15 min
0.23
93%
Takedown defense
81%
1.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.98Δ 1.32 — meaningful gap+2.30
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Ilia TopuriaMax Holloway
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Ilia Topuria(9 fights)Max Holloway(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-76.476.4
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+56.0-56.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.2-0.2
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-2.42.4
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.6-0.6
Ilia Topuria
StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights9
Max Holloway
StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights32