Flyweight
3 Rounds
Chris Cariaso won · KO/TKO R2
UFC Event·Wednesday, October 9, 2013·Barueri, Sao Paulo, Brazil, Brazil
Style matchupIliarde Santos: Well-roundedvsChris Cariaso: Well-rounded
Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.
Model Prediction: Chris Cariaso wins(57.1%)
Actual result: Chris Cariaso wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Chris Cariaso enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Iliarde Santos has 26pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Chris Cariaso (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Iliarde Santos
Red Corner
VS
Chris Cariaso
Blue Corner
-345
(78%)
Vegas Odds
+315
(24%)
45
Age
44
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'5"
Height
5'3"
170.18 cm
Reach
162.56 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Iliarde SantosL2 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Iuri Alcantara · May 13L
vs Ian McCall · Aug 13Chris CariasoL3 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Danny Martinez · Feb 14W
vs Louis Smolka · May 14L
SUBvs Demetrious Johnson · Sep 14L
vs Henry Cejudo · Mar 15L
vs Sergio Pettis · Oct 15Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Iliarde SantosMetricChris Cariaso
3.00
Strikes / min
3.35
6.10
Strikes absorbed / min
2.23
57%
Strike defense
61%
1.66
TDs / 15 min
1.11
83%
Takedown defense
57%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.80
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-3.10Δ 4.22 — meaningful gap+1.12
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Iliarde SantosChris Cariaso
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Iliarde Santos(3 fights)Chris Cariaso(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-41.941.9
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-77.077.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.70.7
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-2.82.8
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.20.2
Iliarde Santos
StanceOrthodox
Height65.0"
Reach67.0"
Fights3
Chris Cariaso
StanceSouthpaw
Height63.0"
Reach64.0"
Fights13