Lightweight
5 Rounds
🏆 Title Bout
Islam Makhachev won · U-DEC R5
UFC Event·Saturday, February 11, 2023·Perth, Western Australia, Australia, Australia
Style matchupIslam Makhachev: WrestlervsAlexander Volkanovski: Well-rounded
Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.
Model Prediction: Islam Makhachev wins(51.9%)
Actual result: Islam Makhachev wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Islam Makhachev enters on a 5-fight win streak.
- Islam Makhachev has 23pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Islam Makhachev (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Islam Makhachev
Red Corner
VS
Alexander Volkanovski
Blue Corner
-365
(78%)
Vegas Odds
+300
(25%)
34
Age
37
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'10"
Height
5'6"
177.8 cm
Reach
180.34 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Islam MakhachevW5 streak
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Charles Oliveira · Oct 22W
KOvs Alexander Volkanovski · Oct 23W
SUBvs Dustin Poirier · Jun 24W
SUBvs Renato Moicano · Jan 25W
vs Jack Della Maddalena · Nov 25Alexander VolkanovskiW2 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Yair Rodriguez · Jul 23L
KOvs Islam Makhachev · Oct 23L
KOvs Ilia Topuria · Feb 24W
vs Diego Lopes · Apr 25W
vs Diego Lopes · Jan 26Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Islam MakhachevMetricAlexander Volkanovski
2.45
Strikes / min
5.99
1.45
Strikes absorbed / min
3.31
61%
Strike defense
58%
3.10
TDs / 15 min
1.63
91%
Takedown defense
68%
1.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.00Δ 1.68 — meaningful gap+2.68
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Islam MakhachevAlexander Volkanovski
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Islam Makhachev(10 fights)Alexander Volkanovski(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-0.80.8
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-112.0112.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
0.00.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-1.51.5
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
Islam Makhachev
StanceSouthpaw
Height70.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights18
Alexander Volkanovski
StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights18