Lightweight
3 Rounds
Islam Makhachev won · SUB R1
UFC Event·Saturday, October 30, 2021·Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, United Arab Emirates
Style matchupIslam Makhachev: WrestlervsDan Hooker: Pressure fighter
The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.
Model Prediction: Islam Makhachev wins(75.9%)
Actual result: Islam Makhachev wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Islam Makhachev enters on a 5-fight win streak.
- Islam Makhachev has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Stance matchup historically favors Dan Hooker (54.1%).
- Dan Hooker has a 13cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Islam Makhachev
Red Corner
VS
Dan Hooker
Blue Corner
-590
(86%)
Vegas Odds
+425
(19%)
34
Age
36
Southpaw
Stance
Switch
5'10"
Height
6'0"
177.8 cm
Reach
190.5 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Islam MakhachevW5 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Alexander Volkanovski · Feb 23W
KOvs Alexander Volkanovski · Oct 23W
SUBvs Dustin Poirier · Jun 24W
SUBvs Renato Moicano · Jan 25W
vs Jack Della Maddalena · Nov 25Dan HookerL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Claudio Puelles · Nov 22W
vs Jalin Turner · Jul 23W
vs Mateusz Gamrot · Aug 24L
SUBvs Arman Tsarukyan · Nov 25L
KOvs Benoit Saint Denis · Jan 26Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Islam MakhachevMetricDan Hooker
2.45
Strikes / min
4.82
1.45
Strikes absorbed / min
4.94
61%
Strike defense
49%
3.10
TDs / 15 min
0.68
91%
Takedown defense
77%
1.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.60
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.00Δ 1.12 — meaningful gap-0.12
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Islam MakhachevDan Hooker
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Islam Makhachev(10 fights)Dan Hooker(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+51.0-51.0
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+70.0-70.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.7-0.7
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.60.6
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.5-0.5
Islam Makhachev
StanceSouthpaw
Height70.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights18
Dan Hooker
StanceSwitch
Height72.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights24