Lightweight
3 Rounds
Islam Makhachev won · SUB
UFC Event·Saturday, March 6, 2021·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupIslam Makhachev: WrestlervsDrew Dober: Pressure fighter
The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.
Model Prediction: Islam Makhachev wins(73.5%)
Actual result: Islam Makhachev wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Islam Makhachev enters on a 5-fight win streak.
- Islam Makhachev threatens submissions; Drew Dober has lost 36% of fights by sub.
- Islam Makhachev has 33pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Islam Makhachev
Red Corner
VS
Drew Dober
Blue Corner
-460
(82%)
Vegas Odds
+365
(22%)
34
Age
37
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
5'10"
Height
5'8"
177.8 cm
Reach
177.8 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Islam MakhachevW5 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Alexander Volkanovski · Feb 23W
KOvs Alexander Volkanovski · Oct 23W
SUBvs Dustin Poirier · Jun 24W
SUBvs Renato Moicano · Jan 25W
vs Jack Della Maddalena · Nov 25Drew DoberW2 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Renato Moicano · Feb 24L
KOvs Jean Silva · Jul 24L
KOvs Manuel Torres · Mar 25W
KOvs Kyle Prepolec · Oct 25W
KOvs Michael Johnson · Mar 26Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Islam MakhachevMetricDrew Dober
2.45
Strikes / min
4.48
1.45
Strikes absorbed / min
4.33
61%
Strike defense
53%
3.10
TDs / 15 min
0.61
91%
Takedown defense
58%
1.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.00evenly matched on net striking+0.15
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Islam MakhachevDrew Dober
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Islam Makhachev(10 fights)Drew Dober(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+34.4-34.4
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+249.0-249.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.2-0.2
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.60.6
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.4-0.4
Islam Makhachev
StanceSouthpaw
Height70.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights18
Drew Dober
StanceSouthpaw
Height68.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights26