Lightweight
5 Rounds
🏆 Title Bout
Islam Makhachev won · SUB R5
UFC Event·Saturday, June 1, 2024·Newark, New Jersey, USA, USA
Style matchupIslam Makhachev: WrestlervsDustin Poirier: Submission grappler
Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.
Model Prediction: Islam Makhachev wins(62.5%)
Actual result: Islam Makhachev wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Islam Makhachev enters on a 5-fight win streak.
- Islam Makhachev threatens submissions; Dustin Poirier has lost 44% of fights by sub.
- Islam Makhachev has 27pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Islam Makhachev
Red Corner
VS
Dustin Poirier
Blue Corner
—
Vegas Odds
—
34
Age
37
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
5'10"
Height
5'9"
177.8 cm
Reach
182.88 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Islam MakhachevW5 streak
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Charles Oliveira · Oct 22W
vs Alexander Volkanovski · Feb 23W
KOvs Alexander Volkanovski · Oct 23W
SUBvs Renato Moicano · Jan 25W
vs Jack Della Maddalena · Nov 25Dustin Poirier
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Charles Oliveira · Dec 21W
SUBvs Michael Chandler · Nov 22L
KOvs Justin Gaethje · Jul 23W
KOvs Benoit Saint Denis · Mar 24L
vs Max Holloway · Jul 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Islam MakhachevMetricDustin Poirier
2.45
Strikes / min
5.24
1.45
Strikes absorbed / min
4.57
61%
Strike defense
52%
3.10
TDs / 15 min
1.15
91%
Takedown defense
64%
1.00
Sub atts / 15 min
1.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.00evenly matched on net striking+0.67
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Islam MakhachevDustin Poirier
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Islam Makhachev(10 fights)Dustin Poirier(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+36.4-36.4
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+140.0-140.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.7-0.7
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-1.51.5
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.2-0.2
Islam Makhachev
StanceSouthpaw
Height70.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights18
Dustin Poirier
StanceSouthpaw
Height69.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights31