Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Islam Makhachev enters on a 5-fight win streak.
- Ian Machado Garry has a 10cm reach advantage.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Islam MakhachevW5 streak
oldest →W
vs Alexander Volkanovski · Feb 23W
KOvs Alexander Volkanovski · Oct 23W
SUBvs Dustin Poirier · Jun 24W
SUBvs Renato Moicano · Jan 25W
vs Jack Della Maddalena · Nov 25 Ian Machado GarryW2 streak
oldest →W
vs Michael Page · Jun 24L
vs Shavkat Rakhmonov · Dec 24W
vs Carlos Prates · Apr 25W
vs Belal Muhammad · Nov 25 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Islam MakhachevMetricIan Machado Garry
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+1.00evenly matched on net striking+1.92
Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Islam Makhachev(10 fights)Ian Machado Garry(9 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +40.5|Blue -40.5
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +7.0|Blue -7.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Islam MakhachevTargetIan Machado Garry
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
0
Ian Machado Garry rounds
Round 1Islam Makhachev edged it
Sig. strikes3
Takedowns1
Control3:38
0Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Islam Makhachev edged it
Sig. strikes11
Takedowns1
Control2:19
Knockdowns1
6Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:17Control
0Knockdowns
Round 3Even round
Sig. strikes5
Takedowns1
Control0:16
9Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:05Control
Round 4Islam Makhachev edged it
Sig. strikes3
Takedowns2
Control3:05
7Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:12Control
Round 5Islam Makhachev edged it
Sig. strikes0
Takedowns2
Control3:12
7Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
