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Elo1544

Elo1541

Ian Machado Garry editorial illustration

Islam MakhachevvsIan Machado GarryUFC Prediction

UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry · Saturday, August 15, 2026Philadelphia, USA

Fight begins in

Style matchupIslam Makhachev: WrestlervsIan Machado Garry: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Fight Detective pick

We select Islam Makhachev to win. Informational only—not a guarantee or betting advice.

Market-implied probability

Islam Makhachev

75.1% market-implied

vs Ian Machado Garry (24.9%)

Model estimate

Islam Makhachev

56.7% model estimate

Internal research signal — not a betting edge.

Market odds

Islam Makhachev-349 (77.7%)

Ian Machado Garry+267 (27.2%)

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Islam Makhachev enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Ian Machado Garry has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Islam Makhachev

Red Corner

Ian Machado Garry

Blue Corner

-349

(78%)

Vegas Odds

+267

(27%)

1544

Elo

1541

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

6'3"

177.8 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Islam MakhachevW5 streak

oldest →

vs Alexander Volkanovski · Feb 23

KOvs Alexander Volkanovski · Oct 23

SUBvs Dustin Poirier · Jun 24

SUBvs Renato Moicano · Jan 25

vs Jack Della Maddalena · Nov 25

latest

Ian Machado GarryW2 streak

oldest →

vs Geoff Neal · Feb 24

vs Michael Page · Jun 24

vs Shavkat Rakhmonov · Dec 24

vs Carlos Prates · Apr 25

vs Belal Muhammad · Nov 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Islam MakhachevMetricIan Machado Garry

2.45

Strikes / min

4.78

1.45

Strikes absorbed / min

2.86

61%

Strike defense

52%

3.10

TDs / 15 min

0.92

91%

Takedown defense

80%

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.00evenly matched on net striking+1.92

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Islam Makhachev(10 fights)Ian Machado Garry(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +3.0|Blue -3.0

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red +7.0|Blue -7.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Method Projection

Matchup projection based on both fighters' finish patterns and vulnerabilities. These three projected methods total 100%. Most likely: KO / TKO.

KO / TKO76%

Historical win share: Ian Machado Garry earned 29% of wins by KO/TKO.

Submission24%

Historical win share: Islam Makhachev earned 47% of wins by submission.

Decision0%

Both fighters frequently end fights early.

The Pick

Vegas favorite

Islam Makhachev

Odds

-349

Market-implied probability

Islam Makhachev 75%

Model pick shown for research — not a betting edge.

$100 bet returns

Islam Makhachev (model pick · research)$129

Ian Machado Garry$367

75% market-implied · model 57% (research) · vufc_v7_0_20260718_090638

🔒 Pick locked Jul 18, 2026, 9:29 AM UTC at -367 · never rewritten

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Islam Makhachev

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights18

Ian Machado Garry

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights8