Lightweight
3 Rounds
Islam Makhachev won · SUB R2
UFC Event·Saturday, May 23, 2015·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Model Prediction: Islam Makhachev wins(69.4%)
Actual result: Islam Makhachev wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Islam Makhachev enters on a 5-fight win streak.
- Islam Makhachev threatens submissions; Leo Kuntz has lost 50% of fights by sub.
- Islam Makhachev has 16pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Islam Makhachev has 58pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Leo Kuntz has a 10cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Islam Makhachev
Red Corner
VS
Leo Kuntz
Blue Corner
-500
(83%)
Vegas Odds
+400
(20%)
34
Age
42
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'10"
Height
5'10"
177.8 cm
Reach
187.96 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Islam MakhachevW5 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Alexander Volkanovski · Feb 23W
KOvs Alexander Volkanovski · Oct 23W
SUBvs Dustin Poirier · Jun 24W
SUBvs Renato Moicano · Jan 25W
vs Jack Della Maddalena · Nov 25Leo Kuntz
oldest →latest
L
vs Tae Hyun Bang · Nov 15Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Islam MakhachevMetricLeo Kuntz
2.45
Strikes / min
1.68
1.45
Strikes absorbed / min
3.80
61%
Strike defense
45%
3.10
TDs / 15 min
1.99
91%
Takedown defense
33%
1.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.70
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.00Δ 3.12 — meaningful gap-2.12
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Islam Makhachev(10 fights)Leo Kuntz(2 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
0.00.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
0.00.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
0.00.0
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
0.00.0
Islam Makhachev
StanceSouthpaw
Height70.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights18
Leo Kuntz
StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach—
Fights2