Lightweight
5 Rounds
🏆 Title Bout
Islam Makhachev won · SUB R1
UFC Event·Saturday, January 18, 2025·Inglewood, California, USA, USA
Style matchupIslam Makhachev: WrestlervsRenato Moicano: Pressure fighter
The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.
Model Prediction: Islam Makhachev wins(73.6%)
Actual result: Islam Makhachev wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Islam Makhachev enters on a 5-fight win streak.
- Islam Makhachev has 27pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Islam Makhachev (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Islam Makhachev
Red Corner
VS
Renato Moicano
Blue Corner
-350
(78%)
Vegas Odds
-165
(62%)
34
Age
37
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'10"
Height
5'11"
177.8 cm
Reach
182.88 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Islam MakhachevW5 streak
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Charles Oliveira · Oct 22W
vs Alexander Volkanovski · Feb 23W
KOvs Alexander Volkanovski · Oct 23W
SUBvs Dustin Poirier · Jun 24W
vs Jack Della Maddalena · Nov 25Renato Moicano
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Brad Riddell · Nov 22W
vs Drew Dober · Feb 24W
KOvs Jalin Turner · Apr 24W
KOvs Benoit Saint Denis · Sep 24L
vs Beneil Dariush · Jun 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Islam MakhachevMetricRenato Moicano
2.45
Strikes / min
4.10
1.45
Strikes absorbed / min
3.55
61%
Strike defense
59%
3.10
TDs / 15 min
1.68
91%
Takedown defense
64%
1.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.60
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.00evenly matched on net striking+0.55
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Islam MakhachevRenato Moicano
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Islam Makhachev(10 fights)Renato Moicano(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+121.0-121.0
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+119.0-119.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.2-0.2
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.80.8
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.3-0.3
Islam Makhachev
StanceSouthpaw
Height70.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights18
Renato Moicano
StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights20