Lightweight
5 Rounds
Islam Makhachev won · SUB R4
UFC Event·Saturday, July 17, 2021·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupIslam Makhachev: WrestlervsThiago Moises: Submission grappler
Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.
Model Prediction: Islam Makhachev wins(75.8%)
Actual result: Islam Makhachev wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Islam Makhachev enters on a 5-fight win streak.
- Islam Makhachev has 39pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Islam Makhachev (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Islam Makhachev
Red Corner
VS
Thiago Moises
Blue Corner
-900
(90%)
Vegas Odds
+600
(14%)
34
Age
31
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'10"
Height
5'9"
177.8 cm
Reach
177.8 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Islam MakhachevW5 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Alexander Volkanovski · Feb 23W
KOvs Alexander Volkanovski · Oct 23W
SUBvs Dustin Poirier · Jun 24W
SUBvs Renato Moicano · Jan 25W
vs Jack Della Maddalena · Nov 25Thiago Moises
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Benoit Saint Denis · Sep 23W
KOvs Mitch Ramirez · Mar 24L
vs Ludovit Klein · Jun 24W
vs Trey Ogden · Jan 25L
KOvs Jared Gordon · May 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Islam MakhachevMetricThiago Moises
2.45
Strikes / min
2.52
1.45
Strikes absorbed / min
4.40
61%
Strike defense
52%
3.10
TDs / 15 min
1.37
91%
Takedown defense
52%
1.00
Sub atts / 15 min
1.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.00Δ 2.88 — meaningful gap-1.88
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Islam MakhachevThiago Moises
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Islam Makhachev(10 fights)Thiago Moises(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+81.9-81.9
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-7.07.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.2-0.2
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.7-0.7
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
Islam Makhachev
StanceSouthpaw
Height70.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights18
Thiago Moises
StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights15