Lightweight
3 Rounds
Ismael Bonfim won · KO/TKO R2
UFC Event·Saturday, January 21, 2023·Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, Brazil
Style matchupIsmael Bonfim: Pressure fightervsTerrance McKinney: Wrestler
The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.
Model Prediction: Ismael Bonfim wins(62.8%)
Actual result: Ismael Bonfim wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Ismael Bonfim is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Terrance McKinney has lost 60% of fights by KO.
- Terrance McKinney is a KO finisher (63% of wins). Ismael Bonfim has lost 67% of fights by KO.
- Ismael Bonfim has 22pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Stance matchup historically favors Terrance McKinney (52.9%).
Tale of the Tape
Ismael Bonfim
Red Corner
VS
Terrance McKinney
Blue Corner
-110
(52%)
Vegas Odds
-110
(52%)
30
Age
31
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
5'8"
Height
5'10"
180.34 cm
Reach
185.42 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Ismael BonfimL2 streak
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Benoit Saint Denis · Jul 23W
vs Vinc Pichel · May 24L
KOvs Nazim Sadykhov · Feb 25L
KOvs Chris Padilla · Nov 25Terrance McKinney
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Esteban Ribovics · May 24W
KOvs Damir Hadzovic · Feb 25W
SUBvs Viacheslav Borshchev · Jun 25L
SUBvs Chris Duncan · Dec 25W
KOvs Kyle Nelson · Mar 26Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Ismael BonfimMetricTerrance McKinney
5.51
Strikes / min
6.53
3.71
Strikes absorbed / min
3.45
65%
Strike defense
43%
1.06
TDs / 15 min
3.31
76%
Takedown defense
72%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
2.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.80Δ 1.28 — meaningful gap+3.08
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Ismael BonfimTerrance McKinney
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Ismael Bonfim(5 fights)Terrance McKinney(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-36.436.4
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.50.5
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+49.6-49.6
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+49.4-49.4
Ismael Bonfim
StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights5
Terrance McKinney
StanceSwitch
Height70.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights13