Women's Strawweight
3 Rounds
Ariane Carnelossi won · SUB R3
UFC Event·Saturday, October 16, 2021·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Model Prediction: Istela Nunes wins(57.6%)
Actual result: Ariane Carnelossi wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Istela Nunes enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Istela Nunes has 15pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Istela Nunes has 25pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Istela Nunes has a 13cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Istela Nunes
Red Corner
VS
Ariane Carnelossi
Blue Corner
+115
(47%)
Vegas Odds
-135
(57%)
33
Age
33
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'4"
Height
5'2"
167.64 cm
Reach
154.94 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Istela NunesL4 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Sam Hughes · Apr 22L
KOvs Yazmin Jauregui · Dec 22L
KOvs Viktoriia Dudakova · Jul 23L
vs Loma Lookboonmee · Apr 25Ariane Carnelossi
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Angela Hill · Sep 19W
KOvs Na Liang · Apr 21L
vs Loopy Godinez · May 22W
vs Piera Rodriguez · May 24L
SUBvs Talita Alencar · Nov 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Istela NunesMetricAriane Carnelossi
4.28
Strikes / min
2.63
4.07
Strikes absorbed / min
4.61
59%
Strike defense
44%
0.00
TDs / 15 min
1.08
47%
Takedown defense
22%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.21Δ 2.19 — meaningful gap-1.98
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Istela NunesAriane Carnelossi
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Istela Nunes(5 fights)Ariane Carnelossi(6 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+1.0-1.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.70.7
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+49.5-49.5
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+50.0-50.0
Istela Nunes
StanceOrthodox
Height64.0"
Reach66.0"
Fights5
Ariane Carnelossi
StanceOrthodox
Height62.0"
Reach61.0"
Fights6