Middleweight
5 Rounds
Jacare Souza won · KO/TKO R1
UFC Event·Saturday, January 27, 2018·Charlotte, North Carolina, USA, USA
Style matchupJacare Souza: WrestlervsDerek Brunson: Wrestler
Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.
Model Prediction: Jacare Souza wins(51.5%)
Actual result: Jacare Souza wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Jacare Souza enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
- Jacare Souza has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Derek Brunson has 28pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Derek Brunson (53.5%).
- Derek Brunson has a 13cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Jacare Souza
Red Corner
VS
Derek Brunson
Blue Corner
+120
(45%)
Vegas Odds
-140
(58%)
46
Age
42
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
6'1"
Height
6'1"
182.88 cm
Reach
195.58 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Jacare SouzaL5 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Jack Hermansson · Apr 19L
vs Jan Blachowicz · Nov 19L
vs Uriah Hall · May 20L
KOvs Kevin Holland · Dec 20L
SUBvs Andre Muniz · May 21Derek BrunsonL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Edmen Shahbazyan · Aug 20W
vs Kevin Holland · Mar 21W
SUBvs Darren Till · Sep 21L
KOvs Jared Cannonier · Feb 22L
KOvs Dricus Du Plessis · Mar 23Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Jacare SouzaMetricDerek Brunson
2.53
Strikes / min
3.51
2.83
Strikes absorbed / min
3.05
62%
Strike defense
51%
2.57
TDs / 15 min
3.14
57%
Takedown defense
85%
1.30
Sub atts / 15 min
0.60
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.30evenly matched on net striking+0.46
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Jacare SouzaDerek Brunson
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Jacare Souza(10 fights)Derek Brunson(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-5.95.9
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+196.0-196.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.30.3
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.30.3
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.0-0.0
Jacare Souza
StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights17
Derek Brunson
StanceSouthpaw
Height73.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights21