Middleweight
3 Rounds
Jacare Souza won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, February 15, 2014·Jaragua do Sul, Santa Catarina, Brazil, Brazil
Model Prediction: Jacare Souza wins(64.8%)
Actual result: Jacare Souza wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Jacare Souza enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
- Francis Carmont has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Francis Carmont has a 15cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Jacare Souza
Red Corner
VS
Francis Carmont
Blue Corner
-500
(83%)
Vegas Odds
+435
(19%)
46
Age
44
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'1"
Height
6'3"
182.88 cm
Reach
198.12 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Jacare SouzaL5 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Jack Hermansson · Apr 19L
vs Jan Blachowicz · Nov 19L
vs Uriah Hall · May 20L
KOvs Kevin Holland · Dec 20L
SUBvs Andre Muniz · May 21Francis CarmontL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Tom Lawlor · Nov 12W
vs Lorenz Larkin · Apr 13W
vs Costas Philippou · Sep 13L
vs CB Dollaway · May 14L
KOvs Thales Leites · Aug 14Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Jacare SouzaMetricFrancis Carmont
2.53
Strikes / min
2.22
2.83
Strikes absorbed / min
1.64
62%
Strike defense
59%
2.57
TDs / 15 min
1.79
57%
Takedown defense
73%
1.30
Sub atts / 15 min
0.60
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.30evenly matched on net striking+0.58
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Jacare SouzaFrancis Carmont
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Jacare Souza(10 fights)Francis Carmont(9 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-59.359.3
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+17.0-17.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.0-0.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-1.61.6
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.20.2
Jacare Souza
StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights17
Francis Carmont
StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach78.0"
Fights9