Middleweight
5 Rounds
Jacare Souza won · SUB R3
UFC Event·Friday, September 5, 2014·Ledyard, Connecticut, USA, USA
Style matchupJacare Souza: WrestlervsGegard Mousasi: Submission grappler
Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.
Model Prediction: Jacare Souza wins(63.4%)
Actual result: Jacare Souza wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Jacare Souza enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
- Gegard Mousasi enters on a 5-fight win streak.
- Jacare Souza threatens submissions; Gegard Mousasi has lost 33% of fights by sub.
- Gegard Mousasi has a 10cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Jacare Souza
Red Corner
VS
Gegard Mousasi
Blue Corner
-185
(65%)
Vegas Odds
+170
(37%)
46
Age
40
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'1"
Height
6'2"
182.88 cm
Reach
193.04 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Jacare SouzaL5 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Jack Hermansson · Apr 19L
vs Jan Blachowicz · Nov 19L
vs Uriah Hall · May 20L
KOvs Kevin Holland · Dec 20L
SUBvs Andre Muniz · May 21Gegard MousasiW5 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Thales Leites · Feb 16W
KOvs Thiago Santos · Jul 16W
KOvs Vitor Belfort · Oct 16W
KOvs Uriah Hall · Nov 16W
KOvs Chris Weidman · Apr 17Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Jacare SouzaMetricGegard Mousasi
2.53
Strikes / min
3.75
2.83
Strikes absorbed / min
1.21
62%
Strike defense
68%
2.57
TDs / 15 min
1.59
57%
Takedown defense
59%
1.30
Sub atts / 15 min
1.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.30Δ 2.84 — meaningful gap+2.54
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Jacare SouzaGegard Mousasi
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Jacare Souza(10 fights)Gegard Mousasi(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+46.0-46.0
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+105.0-105.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.8-0.8
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-2.22.2
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.2-0.2
Jacare Souza
StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights17
Gegard Mousasi
StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights12