Middleweight
3 Rounds
Kelvin Gastelum won · S-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, May 12, 2018·Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, Brazil
Style matchupJacare Souza: WrestlervsKelvin Gastelum: Well-rounded
Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.
Model Prediction: Jacare Souza wins(59.0%)
Actual result: Kelvin Gastelum wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Jacare Souza enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
- Jacare Souza threatens submissions; Kelvin Gastelum has lost 30% of fights by sub.
- Stance matchup historically favors Kelvin Gastelum (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Jacare Souza
Red Corner
VS
Kelvin Gastelum
Blue Corner
-115
(53%)
Vegas Odds
-105
(51%)
46
Age
34
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
6'1"
Height
5'9"
182.88 cm
Reach
180.34 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Jacare SouzaL5 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Jack Hermansson · Apr 19L
vs Jan Blachowicz · Nov 19L
vs Uriah Hall · May 20L
KOvs Kevin Holland · Dec 20L
SUBvs Andre Muniz · May 21Kelvin Gastelum
oldest →latest
W
vs Chris Curtis · Apr 23L
SUBvs Sean Brady · Dec 23W
vs Daniel Rodriguez · Jun 24L
vs Joe Pyfer · Jun 25W
vs Dustin Stoltzfus · Sep 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Jacare SouzaMetricKelvin Gastelum
2.53
Strikes / min
3.65
2.83
Strikes absorbed / min
3.52
62%
Strike defense
57%
2.57
TDs / 15 min
1.04
57%
Takedown defense
60%
1.30
Sub atts / 15 min
0.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.30evenly matched on net striking+0.13
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Jacare SouzaKelvin Gastelum
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Jacare Souza(10 fights)Kelvin Gastelum(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+7.3-7.3
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-63.063.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-1.11.1
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
Jacare Souza
StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights17
Kelvin Gastelum
StanceSouthpaw
Height69.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights24