Welterweight
5 Rounds
🏆 Title Bout
Islam Makhachev won · U-DEC R5
UFC Event·Saturday, November 15, 2025·New York City, New York, USA, USA
Style matchupJack Della Maddalena: Pressure fightervsIslam Makhachev: Wrestler
The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.
Model Prediction: Islam Makhachev wins(57.6%)
Actual result: Islam Makhachev wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Jack Della Maddalena enters on a 5-fight win streak.
- Islam Makhachev enters on a 5-fight win streak.
- Islam Makhachev has 27pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Jack Della Maddalena (54.1%).
Tale of the Tape
Jack Della Maddalena
Red Corner
VS
Islam Makhachev
Blue Corner
+260
(28%)
Vegas Odds
-320
(76%)
29
Age
34
Switch
Stance
Southpaw
5'11"
Height
5'10"
185.42 cm
Reach
177.8 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Jack Della MaddalenaW5 streak
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Randy Brown · Feb 23W
vs Bassil Hafez · Jul 23W
vs Kevin Holland · Sep 23W
KOvs Gilbert Burns · Mar 24W
vs Belal Muhammad · May 25Islam MakhachevW5 streak
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Charles Oliveira · Oct 22W
vs Alexander Volkanovski · Feb 23W
KOvs Alexander Volkanovski · Oct 23W
SUBvs Dustin Poirier · Jun 24W
SUBvs Renato Moicano · Jan 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Jack Della MaddalenaMetricIslam Makhachev
5.32
Strikes / min
2.45
4.24
Strikes absorbed / min
1.45
61%
Strike defense
61%
0.34
TDs / 15 min
3.10
64%
Takedown defense
91%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
1.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.08evenly matched on net striking+1.00
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Jack Della MaddalenaIslam Makhachev
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Jack Della Maddalena(9 fights)Islam Makhachev(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-100.8100.8
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-112.0112.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
0.00.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.50.5
Jack Della Maddalena
StanceSwitch
Height71.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights9
Islam Makhachev
StanceSouthpaw
Height70.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights18